Hot Chilli

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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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Large and demanding portfolios were highlighted as a key challenge, with 64% of managers overseeing 100 or more VIPs, while one in five managed more than 500. 

The report highlighted the intense workload by estimating that a manager looking after 250 players would have roughly 100 seconds to commit to each player each day if their time was split equally. Data quality and fragmentation were also issues. 

Grygorenko emphasised that prioritisation was the key to adapting these portfolio sizes. 

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“I have a lot to say, but I can’t.”

Playtech revenue increased 10% year-on-year in its H1 to €425.1 million, powered by what the company described as “exceptional growth” for its B2B business in North America.

Revenue from the US and Canada surged 161% year-on-year to €56.9 million.