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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Within a common area inside the Polymarket headquarters, Manning skied high to catch a ball from a jugs machine, while he withstood a low tackle from a defender. “Good morning, Eli,” James proclaimed, before the two-time Super Bowl MVP tossed him the football outside an elevator adorned with the Polymarket logo. Seconds later, James exchanged a handshake with Jeter, a Hall of Fame shortstop who won five World Series titles with the New York Yankees. Last month, the Yankees became the first Major League Baseball club to directly partner with Polymarket.
The total cost of the ad has not been divulged by Polymarket, but it is fair to estimate that it fell in the millions given the high expenses of bringing aboard a prominent filmmaker such as Berg. Beyond director fees, Polymarket also had to budget for agency and concept fees, set construction and post-production costs that include visual effects, licensing and sound design. In late-August, Polymarket disclosed that it has sought a $21 billion valuation in a new funding round led by Donald Trump Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital.
Polymarket may defend any substantial investment in marketing given the overwhelming impact on customer acquisition that ensued. On Tuesday, Polymarket ranked first on the App Store in downloads for free finance apps, topping archrival Kalshi, Capital One Mobile and prominent payment providers PayPal and Venmo.
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The historic showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers will take place at a venue located 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, home of the last meeting between the NFC West rivals. Both teams are based in California, a fertile ground for prediction markets given a sports betting ban in a state with more than 39 million residents. But the Americans in attendance for Thursday night’s matchup (Friday in Melbourne) will not be able to live-trade from their seats.
That is because trading on prediction markets is illegal down under, according to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, the nation’s regulator on financial services. Last month, in perhaps the ASIC’s strongest warnings yet against the asset class, the commission reiterated that prediction markets are not licensed as financial markets to operate in Australia. Through the guidance, the regulator urged consumers to exercise caution before partaking in certain investments on offshore platforms which have not obtained licensing nationwide.
The advisory could be music to the ears of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, whose league has pushed a federal derivatives regulator in the US to enact more rigorous standards to help protect the integrity of professional sports. Ahead of the matchup, Goodell spoke with CNBC from Melbourne.
